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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.