How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.