From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”